Ranking the Football Conferences By Bowl Season (Part III), Or: Face It, The SEC Sucks

*Note: This is probably being published prior to the BCS Championship Game. It's predicated on the idea that LSU wins ugly over Ohio State.

Big-10: 3 – 4 (1 game remaining: Ohio State vs. LSU)

Invitees: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bowl Invitations: Motor City (Purdue), Champs Sports (Michigan State), Valero Alamo (Penn State), Insight (Indiana), Outback (Wisconsin), Capital One (Michigan), Rose Bowl (Illinois), BCS Championship Game (Ohio State)
Bowl Invitations Rank: 2^nd
Overall Rank: 3^rd

Some people might suggest that since the Big10 Conference has fewer wins than the Big12, that the Big12 would be better. Not so. Just look at the Quality wins (not to mention the inclusion in the BCS championship game). Sure, Illinois decided that defense and O-line blocking wasn’t important to get ready for USC (they lost 49 – 17, with one touchdown coming on a kick return). And Indiana got whooped by Oklahoma State in the Insight Bowl, 49 – 33. And Wisconsin lost to Tennessee 21 – 17 in the Outback Bowl. And Michigan State loses the Champs Sports Bowl to BC, 24 – 21. But Purdue, who got suckered into the Motor City Bowl, won an entertaining affair over the Central Michigan Chippewas 51 – 48. That’s pride. And we already discovered not to taunt JoePa’s mortality. And best of all? Michigan closing out Florida in a great Capital One Bowl, 41 – 35. The same Florida team who was defending national champs. The same Florida that sported a Heisman at quarterback in Tim Tebow. The same Florida team that was an odds-on favorite against a team that never looked as tough after losing to (eventual 1AA National Champs) Appalachian State. So good for the Wolverines. We learned a few things in that game. 1) On an even field (health, preparation time, etc.) the upper tier of the Big10 is at least the equal of the SEC or the Big12 (see: Mizzou over Arkansas). Now, if only we could have had Wisco win their game to support such an argument. And 2) Tim Tebow will not be a good quarterback in the NFL, and is barely serviceable in college when you apply pressure and make him react to you. Is he a good quarterback? I’d say “most days”. But when Chad Henne got your number, well, you can’t be that good. Unless, of course, Henne turns into the next Tom Brady in the NFL next year.

The SEC: 6 – 2 (1 game remaining: LSU vs. Ohio State)

Invitees: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Bowl Invitations: Autozone Liberty (Mississippi State), PetroSun Independence (Alabama), Gaylord Hotels Music City (Kentucky), Chick-Fil-A (Auburn), Outback (Tennessee), Cotton (Arkansas), Capital One (Florida), AllState Sugar (Georgia), BCS Championship (LSU)
Bowl Invitations Rank: 1st
Overall Rank: 2nd

The thing with the SEC is that, every year, everyone starts hooting and hollering how tough the SEC is. Which is a circuitous way of apologizing for why they play cupcakes for their non-conference schedules. Don’t believe me? Here’s a list, sorted by final division standings:

SEC East: (Nonconference Record: 21 – 3)

Georgia (6-2) – Oklahoma State (W), Western Carolina (W), Troy (W), at Georgia Tech (W)
Tennessee (6-2) – at Cal (L), S. Mississippi (W), Arkansas St. (W), Louisiana- Lafayette (W)
Florida (5-3) – Western Kentucky (W), Troy (W), Florida Atlantic (W), Florida State (W)
Kentucky (3-5) – Eastern Kentucky (W), Kent State (W), Louisville (W), Florida Atlantic (W)
S. Carolina (3-5) – La.-Lafayette (W), S. Carolina St. (W), at N. Carolina (W), Clemson (L)
Vanderbilt (2-6) – Richmond (W), E. Michigan (W), Miami of Ohio (W), Wake Forest (L)

SEC East Nonconference Home Record: 19 – 2
SEC East Nonconference Away Record: 2 – 1

Cupcake Schools (10 schools, 14 games): W. Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, E. Kentucky, Kent State, South Carolina State, Richmond, Eastern Michigan

Schools that “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (7 schools, 7 games): Oklahoma State, Southern Mississippi, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami of Ohio, Wake Forest

Legitimate Nonconference Contests (3 schools, 3 games): Florida State, Georgia Tech, Cal

Takeaway Message on the SEC East: They played exactly 1 team (Cal) who ended up being a good team with a long bad-luck streak this year. And lost. Yes, Florida State has some residual aura about them, but it was a down year for them, as it was for Georgia Tech. And FSU is showing symptoms of long-term mediocrity. Oklahoma State is hardly the pride of the Big12 and there’s nary a Big10 school on the list. Fact is, they schedule patticakes.

SEC West (Nonconference Record: 20 – 4)

LSU (6-2) – Virginia Tech (W), Middle Tennessee (W), at Tulane (W), Louisiana Tech (W)
Auburn (5-3) – Kansas St. (W), S. Florida (L), New Mexico State (W), Tennessee Tech (W)
Arkansas (4-4) – Troy (W), North Texas (W), Chattanooga (W), Florida International (W),
Mississippi State (4-4) – at Tulane (W), Gardner-Webb (W), UAB (W), at West Virginia (L),
Alabama (4-4) – W. Carolina (W), at Florida State (L), Houston (W), Louisiana-Monroe (W)
Ole Miss (0-8) – at Memphis (W), Missouri (L), Louisiana Tech (W), Northwestern State (W)

SEC West Nonconference Home Record: 17 – 2
SEC West Nonconference Away Record: 3 – 2

Cupcake Schools (16 schools, 18 games): Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, Troy, North Texas, Chattanooga, Florida International, Gardner-Webb, UAB, W. Carolina, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe, Memphis, Northwestern State

Schools that “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (2 schools, 2 games): Kansas State, South Florida

Legitimate Nonconference Contests (4 schools, 4 games): Virginia Tech, Florida State, Missouri, West Virginia

Takeaway Message on the SEC West: They played 2 BCS teams, going 1 – 1. But in those legitimate nonconference games, they went 1 – 3, losing to FSU, Mizzou and West Virginia. And that win over VaTech is pretty weak, once you saw them roll over their sword against Kansas in the FedEx Orange Bowl. Note again the complete lack of a Big10 school. And that name-brand West Virginia game? Scheduled by mighty Mississippi State.

So is the SEC any good? Or is their greatness equal parts weak scheduling (for the most part) and some timely wins rather than any real great season-long effort? I’d say that you can’t defend the SEC that strongly. Yes, they have good teams. But like the rich kid up the block, they only come out to play once in a great while and as a result, you end thinking their toys are all the greater when you do see them. Unless of course for the times that they lose, like in the Tennessee loss to Cal. In which case, you quietly change the subject and hope everyone forgets.

Another way to look at it, is to lump the whole conference together:

Overall Record: 89 – 57 {46 – 27 (SEC-East), 43 – 30 (SEC-West)} .610 win%
Overall Interdivision Wins: SEC-East 10 - 8 SEC-West
Overall Conference Record: {25 – 23 (SEC-East), 23 – 25 (SEC-West)}
Overall Nonconference Record: 41 – 7 (.850 win%, 46% of overall wins)

Some important things immediately jump to mind. 1) Their nonconference schedule is almost exclusively home games (40 out of 48 games). Which shouldn’t be surprising, given what they’d pay to small schools to come to their home field. 2) Their nonconference schedule is nearly devoid of major conference schools (only 13 schools) or schools that ended up making a bowl berth (16 teams). 3) Their record nonconference is 41 – 9. But against major conference schools? Big East champion West Virginia? Loss. Pac10 Runnerup Cal? Loss. ACC trainwreck Florida State? 1 – 1.

Item 4) There's only 18 interdivision games, which slightly favored the SEC-East this year 10 wins to 8 for the SEC-West. This is possibly due entirely to the presence of Ole Miss in the SEC-West. But the interdivision schedules are hardly balanced. The way the divisions work, all conference games count towards your division total, with tie breakers first being determined in head-to-head and then inter-division records. So it's conceivable to lose no interdivision games and not make the conference championship (see: Georgia). And it's equally conceivable to lose the right mix of division and interdivision games and take a tie-breaker (see: Tennessee). I'm not saying that you can be a total conference dog, but if you win 4 of your division games, chances are you're in the running to for a tie-breaker. 5 wins and you're in. Tennessee and LSU won 4. Georgia won 3. The point is: interdivision games mean very little so long as you clean up your division (thereby winning crucial tie-breakers). Just ask Georgia, who went 3-0 against the SEC-West and somehow didn't make the conference championships, thanks to an early surprise loss home to South Carolina that cemented a second place finish when they lost at Tennessee a month later.

The 5^th and final thing that jumps to mind is that the SEC teams EACH get 4 nonconference games. Which leaves them 8 conference games. 9 for the lucky two who get to the championship game (more on that in a second). Since there are 11 other conference teams, that means they play only 72% of their conference in any given year. But that’s not exactly true, since you must play everyone inside your division (that’s 5 games). Leaving you 3 games against the other division. So you face 50% of the other division. So, if the schedule gods are nice, you might get two patsies (pick from Vanderbilt or South Carolina in the SEC-East; Ole Miss, Alabama, or Mississippi State in the SEC-West) or a tough team at home (see: Kentucky 43 – 37 LSU). In any event, in the conference that complains that it’s too difficult to go undefeated, they say you have to win 7 conference games to lock up a spot in the conference championship. Or this year, just 6. Either way, it’s nobody but the SEC’s fault that they have a (money-generating) conference championship. Cut out one nonconference game, and rotate through one team in your division that you don’t play each year, and suddenly you need 8 conference wins to be legitimate. Plus, it greatly changes the benefits of playing Ole Miss if you aren't assured that game year after year (as half of the SEC gets now...) You get to choose which 4 teams from each division (out of 9 games) that would be. You're still able to lose 1 game. But beating exactly half of the conference PLUS one conference championship game (which may or may not be a rematch) is, in my book, garbage. And it’s 2 or 3 fewer games than the Pac10 or Big10 champ have to win to clinch their championship-game-having conferences.

Still need more proof that the SEC is geared to win one game (a gamble that USC, Cal, Oregon, West Virginia, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Missouri, etc. would gladly have then their current regular season schedules)? Look no further than Tennessee’s 45 – 31 loss to Cal for what they dread about nonconference games. Too much risk. But, in addition to those 4 patsies they “can” schedule, they get to add in Ole Miss (who could only win nonconference games), Vanderbilt (2 – 6 in conference), and South Carolina (3 – 5 in conference), and the top challengers to the SEC crown are at 5 or 6 wins before they even play a single good game, and potentially 2-0 in their division, meaning they have to only win 2 of 3 games. Don't believe me? Look at the results. Though the year was screwy in general for football, pretty much all you needed to do in the SEC was win one clutch game and then let the deck reshuffle itself and find where you sit. That's how Tennessee made it. And LSU. And why Georgia was left out. Florida choked to Auburn, and lost to LSU and Georgia. They're out. And yet, they still finished with 9 wins. Auburn is still shaking their head over Mississippi State's 19-14 upset . Two other losses to LSU and Georgia finished their season. With 8 wins. Georgia got to 10 wins. But their two losses will forever haunt them. They lost their spot to a team (Tennessee) with one fewer regular season win AND (therefore) one more loss. And both get to look at LSU preen on a national stage NOT because their 10-2 regular season record (identical to Georgia) was any better, but mainly because: West Virginia lost to Pittsburgh, USC lost to Stanford, Oregon decided to make an ambulance the team bus, Kansas lost to Missouri who lost to Oklahoma, Boston College lost to Florida State and Maryland in back-to-back weeks, and nobody had the guts to stick an undefeated Hawaii in the BCS Title Game. So tell me LSU is better. Go ahead. At least if Tennessee had beaten LSU, Georgia wouldn't have an argument. Instead, it's a "they just didn't schedule us" argument. Which is no argument for determining who is a better team.

Need numbers? Let’s take out those 41 nonconference wins, and the 21 wins over the bottom of the SEC. That’s 62 wins (practically) guaranteed. What does that leave the SEC minus the bottom feeders? A pedestrian 29 – 31. Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee have 18 of those wins.

How is this a good conference again? They beat up on weak DivIAA teams and have 3 more games against in-conference cupcakes. Given that they have 12 teams and cannot possibly play each other without giving up that lucrative Troy or Gardner-Webb home game, they play to win one game more than half of their remaining 5 conference games. Getting them to the magical 6 – 2 conference record shared by Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. It’s a joke.

Just to prove I’m not a total Pac10 snob, I did the same analysis for the Pac10. These are all their non-conference games (sorted by final conference standings):

USC (7-2) – Idaho (W), at Nebraska (W), at Notre Dame (W)
ASU (7-2) – San Jose State (W), Colorado (W), San Diego State (W)
Oregon State (6-3) – Utah (W), at Cincinnati (L), Idaho State (W)
Oregon (5-4) – Houston (W), at Michigan (W), Fresno State (W)
ucla (5-4) – BYU (W), at Utah (L), Notre Dame (L)
Arizona (4-5) – at BYU (L), Northern Arizona (W), New Mexico (L)
Cal (3-6) – Tennessee (W), at Colorado State (W), Louisana Tech (W)
Washington State (3-6) – at Wisconsin (L), San Diego State (W), Idaho (W)
Stanford (3-6) – San Jose State (W), TCU (L), Notre Dame (L)
Washington (2-7) – at Syracuse (W), Boise State (W), Ohio State (L), at Hawaii (L)

Overall Record: 67 – 54 (.554 win %)
NonConference Record: 21 – 10 (.677 win%, 31% of overall wins)

Cupcakes Schools (7 schools, 10 games): Idaho, San Jose State, San Diego State, Idaho State, Houston, Northern Arizona, Louisiana Tech

Schools the “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (12 schools, 16 games): Nebraska, Notre Dame, Colorado, Utah, Cincinnati, Fresno St., BYU, New Mexico, Boise St., TCU, Colorado St., Syracuse

Legitimate Nonconference Contests (5 schools, 5 games): Michigan, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Hawaii (potentially this year only)

This is the difference between winning the Pac10 and the SEC. Nearly half of your games won in the SEC come from out of conference, whereas one-third count for the Pac10. Ergo: Conference games mean more in the Pac10, which is why you have to win more Pac10 games to be conference champion. Usually, it’s 8 wins out of 9. And, with the nice balance of 10 teams, you play everyone, every year. This year, being as topsy-turvy as it was, 7 wins was enough. Which is exactly the same that LSU needed to be conference champion (and the same number of conference losses). The difference is, it’s far more likely to win the SEC with 7 wins than the Pac10 in any given year. Have the good fortune to be in the “weak” division, sweep those opponents and then go 1 – 2 against the other division, and you’re in the conference championship! Or even better, go 0 – 3 against the other division and you’re still in! Want to know the last time a Pac10 team with 3 conference losses won the Rose Bowl invitation? Never. Last time an SEC team with 3 conference losses was crowned champ? How about 2001? The team? LSU.

Yes, there is good football in the SEC and a lot of good teams. But in a super-conference like the SEC which has to split the conference into divisions, you can sneak through the weaker division and then win the conference championship, having never played the top teams. Or, alternately, you can be frozen out by a silly tie-breaker rule that saw Tennessee take Georgia’s rightful place in the SEC Championship Game, who then proceeded to lose a tough one to LSU. But you can’t say that the SEC is flat-out the best conference in the country. There are a million arguments why LSU doesn’t belong in the BCS Championship Game to counter the million arguments why they do belong. Fortunately, Ohio State gets to help sort that out. But in the rest of their extensive bowl season (9 total games), they tended to fizzle when it mattered most (see: Florida, Arkansas). The second-tier games were where they shined, winning all five of those contests. And while I like Georgia, their 41 – 10 win over Hawaii proved nothing to me except for the sad fact that Hawaii, though undefeated when they arrived, was not a Top-10 team in the country. They were a better fit at the Holiday Bowl.

And when you think about it, the BCS Series of bowl games is designed to get the 10 best teams to play each other, with the purported top two getting the coveted Championship Game. Yet this year, the BCS sported a spotted record of guaranteeing that the other 8 slots went to the other 8 best teams. Which is why the BCS is such a puzzle to figure out. How do you guarantee the at-large bids (Kansas, Georgia, Illinois) are the right choices? The fact is that you can’t. And with money being the motivator of the bowl season, chances are any future changes will be cosmetic. And worse, given the relationships still maintained by conferences and bowls, you still get stuck with USC-Illinois and Georgia-Hawaii when pretty much anyone would agree that USC-Georgia is a much better match-up. Wherever it would be played.

My solution? Get rid of the Blue-Grey and Senior Bowl games (which totally repudiates the “their season is already too long for a playoff system” excuse) and have a +1 game. Let the five BCS bowl games play out (we’ll call the Capital One or Cotton Bowl the 5^th game), and then choose through some crazy formula who gets the two spots for the championship game. It’s really no different than right now, if you think about it. But it does require at least one round of playing a real nonconference game, something we see too little of, if at all. Which would leave us with: Georgia, USC, Kansas, West Virginia, and LSU. Any of those pairings would be 1) guaranteed money and tv ratings, and 2) an improvement on picking the pair in November before any team gets a chance to get healthy and show themselves one more time (USC), redeem themselves from unlikely or late-season losses (Kansas, Georgia, West Virginia), or prove that they are more than the focus of an echo chamber situated somewhere over the Southeast (LSU). So why not?